Sargent Reading Group

Organizers: Thomas J. Sargent (sargentt@wharton.upenn.edu) and Renan Muta (renanm@wharton.upenn.edu)

Meeting schedule

  1. Jiacheng Li

    jl10727@wharton.upenn.edu
    APS and Credible Plans

  2. Tommaso Manfè

    tmanfe@wharton.upenn.edu
    Foundations of Finance

Suggested material

APS and credible plans

Foundations of finance

Meeting schedule

  1. Renan Muta

    renanm@wharton.upenn.edu
    Investment Under Uncertainty Lucas and Prescott Econometrica, 1971

  2. Mariia Elkina

    elkina@sas.upenn.edu
    Rules Rather than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans Kydland and Prescott JPE, 1977
    Additional reading Reputation and Time Consistency Stokey AER, 1989

Meeting details

Date:

Time:

Address: SHDH 2401, Steinberg Hall-Dietrich Hall, 3620 Locust Walk, Philadelphia, PA 19104

24 September

Meeting schedule

  1. Mariia Elkina

    elkina@sas.upenn.edu

    Research interestsMonetary economics, expectations, and policy credibility

    Forward guidance: Communication, commitment, or both? Bassetto JME, 2019

  2. Jiacheng Li

    jl10727@wharton.upenn.edu

    Research interestsMacro-finance, monetary policy, banking, asset pricing

    Whatever It Takes? The Impact of Conditional Policy Promises Haddad, Moreira, and Muir AER, 2025

  3. Yuekang (Bill) Li

    yuekang@sas.upenn.edu

    Research interestsFirm Dynamics, Digital Economy, Innovation, Geoeconomics

    Nonrivalry and the Economics of Data Jones and Tonetti AER, 2020

  4. Tommaso Manfè

    tmanfe@wharton.upenn.edu

    Research interestsMacro-finance, Asset pricing

    A Macroeconomic Model with a Financial Sector Brunnermeier and Sannikov AER, 2014

  5. Renan Muta

    renanm@wharton.upenn.edu

    Research interestsMacro-Finance, Monetary Economics, Information

    Investment Under Uncertainty Lucas and Prescott Econometrica, 1971

  6. Alex Oktay

    alexokta@upenn.edu

    Research interestsBusiness cycles, monetary economics, international finance

    The Limits of ONETARY ECONOMICS: On Money as a Constraint on Market Power Lagos and Zhang Econometrica, 2022

  7. Juan Camilo Mendez Vizcaino

    jmendevi@sas.upenn.edu

    Research interestsInternational Finance and Banking, Regulation

    Financial intermediation, real exchange rates, and unconventional policies in an open economy Cespedes, Chang, Velasco JIE, 2017

  8. David Xu

    xdavid@upenn.edu

    Research interestsFirm dynamics, labor, innovation

    The Aggregate Implications of Mergers and Acquisitions David Review of Economic Studies, 2021

  9. Ziyue (Humphrey) Yang

    humyzy@wharton.upenn.edu

    Research interestsMacro-Finance, Learning

    If You're so Smart, why Aren't You Rich? Belief Selection in Complete and Incomplete Markets Blume and Easley Econometrica, 2006

Meeting materials

Tom’s recommendation

Read QuantEcon lectures 113–115 in order, then return to the Lucas–Prescott paper Renan presented.

  1. 113. Rational Expectations Equilibrium
  2. 114. Investment Under Uncertainty
  3. 115. Optimal Growth Under Uncertainty and Tobin’s q

Lectures 114–115 connect to Stokey and Lucas, with Prescott.

Full lecture series

Background readings from Tom

Kydland–Prescott / Barro–Gordon

Rational expectations and investment under uncertainty

The Blume–Easley model

Blume–Easley and macro-finance foundations